FUBAR?

Apparently much of the fate of the US/British invasion of Iraq now hinges of the outcome of the Basra conflict. DEBKAfile reports that forces connected to Saddam's nutjob of a son Uday have approached from the north laden with cash to get Iraqi citizenry to begin a sort of intifada against the invading forces. From the south comes the Shiite militiamen led by Majid al-Khoei -- a US secret weapon that Gen Franks had up his sleeve if you will -- hoping to unite the largely Shiite population into an uprising against Saddam. This is the "Iraqi Uprising" in Basra you've been hearing about.

Why is Basra now so damned important? Again, according to DEBKAfile:

DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal that allied generals are banking heavily on a successful Shiite uprising against the Saddam regime in Basra under Majid Khoei’s leadership spreading to the Shiite holy cities of Najef and Karbala on the route to Baghdad and also infecting the Shiite troops serving with the Special Republican Divisions defending the capital. Especially targeted are the Shiites of the Iraqi Army’s 2nd Army which is posted in Baghdad.

However, if Uday beats General Franks to the draw and is able to incite the Shiites to rise up in support of the Iraqi army, thereby retaining hold of Basra – even for a brief period - the Shiite community of at least 12 million will not dare to line up behind Majid Khoei. There will be nothing then to stop the Iraqi guerrilla war against allied supply lines growing into a wholesale paramilitary campaign against the American and British military presence in Iraq.

Much for the forthcoming contest in Baghdad is therefore riding on the outcome of the fight for Basra, in which British troops and Shiite militiamen, under cover of American fighter planes and helicopters, are pitted against the paramilitary forces of Uday Hussein, supported by elements of the Iraqi 11th, 51s and 6th Divisions, as well as Saddam’s Fedayeen and the local Baath militia.

Personally I've been hoping this whole thing would have gone along with Donald Rumsfeld's plans of a lighter invasion force that gets in and out with a minimum of casualties but it's beginning to seem like that will only work in situations where the opponent is willing to play by the rules. Now the US is facing a man who keeps all of his power -- even over his most trusted aides -- through a fog of intimidation and terror and is willing to break every rule in the book to insure his survival.

I'm worried and I hope all this naysaying is completely off the mark and the folks that are over in Iraq -- on both sides of the conflict -- come out okay in the end.

But I'm still worried.

First Salam Pax and now...

Blogs are everywhere and in some ways giving the most unique insights into this particular war. First I came across the Dear Raed blog ostensibly coming from an Iraqi citizen in Bagdhad and now we've got the US's own Lt. Smash (funny, they just re-ran that Simpsons episode the day before yesterday) posting from "The Sandbox." It's a bit light and reads more like propopganda than anything else. A nice epicenter of war related blogs would be at Blogs Of War. Links galore to all kinds of other sites and minute by minute updates. Not bad for a US-centric site.